readingsignal

If the UK Election Were Held Today

Updated 2 hours ago

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Lab
304
−107 vs 2024
194408
Reform
133
+128 vs 2024
29267
Con
78
−43 vs 2024
16165
Lib Dem
74
+2 vs 2024
5488
SNP
15
+6 vs 2024
040
Ind
11
+5 vs 2024
614
Green
7
+3 vs 2024
410

Labour is likely the largest party (88%). A hung parliament is the most likely result (60%).

Lab 304
Reform 133
Con 78
Lib Dem 74
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →
Also on this siteFrance 2027By-electionsTrack record

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 470
Reform 4
Con 96
Lib Dem 52
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 288
Reform 152
Con 74
Lib Dem 78
Green 6
SNP 21
Lab -182Reform +148Con -22Lib Dem +26Green +2SNP +21
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 323
Reform 30
Con 169
Lib Dem 73
Green 6
SNP 19
Lab +35Reform -122Con +95Lib Dem -5SNP -2
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 311
Reform 123
Con 72
Lib Dem 78
Green 5
SNP 18
Lab -12Reform +93Con -97Lib Dem +5Green -1SNP -1

Polling Tracker

2044polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
29
13
28
19
London· 75
53
6
11
North West· 73
46
15
East of England· 61
24
19
7
10
South West· 58
24
4
23
6
Scotland· 57
28
6
5
18
West Midlands· 57
21
22
6
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
24
19
6
East Midlands· 47
21
20
5
Wales· 32
23
3
5
North East· 27
18
7
2

Latest Polls

2044 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Lab
Ref
Con
LD
Grn
5 Oct
Survation
1669
30
24
19
9
8
5 Oct
More in Common
2088
29
24
21
10
7
5 Oct
YouGov
2312
27
22
20
11
11
2 Oct
Opinium
1552
30
25
17
9
11
30 Sept
Find Out Now
2607
27
23
17
9
12

Model updates

8 Oct, 13:30
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2044 polls processed.
8 Oct, 06:04
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2044 polls processed.
7 Oct, 23:05
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2044 polls processed.
7 Oct, 19:59
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2044 polls processed.
7 Oct, 13:55
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2043 polls processed.