UK Election Forecaster

The Forecast

Updated 1 hour ago
Reform
216
+211 vs 2024
97341
Lab
129
−282 vs 2024
68192
Con
121
0 vs 2024
39205
Lib Dem
93
+21 vs 2024
83110
SNP
40
+31 vs 2024
3246
Green
16
+12 vs 2024
833
Ind
7
+1 vs 2024
59
Reform 216
Lab 129
Con 121
Lib Dem 93
SNP 40
326 majority

Local elections — May 7

Three scenarios
Explore scenarios →
73
councils changing control
83
projected NOC
40
Labour holds
19%
avg Reform vote share

136 English councils · Mild / Central / Severe scenarios · Interactive sliders

Scottish Parliament — May 7

See Scottish forecast →
100%
SNP largest party
50–68
SNP seat range
8–26
Labour seat range
13
Reform seats projected

73 constituency MSPs + 56 regional list = 129 total · Mixed-member proportional

Senedd — May 7

See Senedd forecast →
69%
Plaid largest party
5–25
Labour seat range
35
Plaid seats projected
30
Reform seats projected

Expanded 96-seat Senedd · 16 six-member constituencies · Closed-list PR

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 414
Reform 16
Con 131
Lib Dem 60
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 75
Reform 347
Con 35
Lib Dem 86
Green 28
SNP 46
Lab -339Reform +331Con -96Lib Dem +26Green +24SNP +46
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 109
Reform 239
Con 119
Lib Dem 91
Green 13
SNP 45
Lab +34Reform -108Con +84Lib Dem +5Green -15SNP -1
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 125
Reform 225
Con 118
Lib Dem 93
Green 13
SNP 41
Lab +16Reform -14Con -1Lib Dem +2SNP -4

Polling Tracker

554polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
18
14
31
26
London· 75
44
9
19
North West· 73
13
49
East of England· 61
13
15
10
22
South West· 58
13
4
27
11
Scotland· 57
6
7
41
West Midlands· 57
8
33
9
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
6
34
6
4
East Midlands· 47
5
33
9
Wales· 32
18
3
7
North East· 27
24
3

Latest Polls

554 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Ref
Lab
Con
LD
Grn
4 Jun
Find Out Now
2940
27
15
17
11
17
1 Jun
More in Common
2211
29
22
21
12
10
1 Jun
YouGov
2342
27
18
18
13
15
28 May
BMG Research
1511
29
21
17
12
12
27 May
Find Out Now
2111
25
16
18
12
19

Model updates

6 Jun, 14:07
v2.4-reconciled — 554 polls processed.
6 Jun, 08:46
v2.4-reconciled — 554 polls processed.
6 Jun, 04:19
v2.4-reconciled — 554 polls processed.
5 Jun, 20:12
v2.4-reconciled — 554 polls processed.
5 Jun, 15:27
v2.4-reconciled — 554 polls processed.