UK Election Forecaster

If the Election Were Held Today

Updated 1 hour ago

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Lab
229
−182 vs 2024
121350
Reform
189
+184 vs 2024
59321
Con
83
−38 vs 2024
19176
Lib Dem
78
+6 vs 2024
6293
SNP
20
+11 vs 2024
046
Green
12
+8 vs 2024
525
Ind
11
+5 vs 2024
414

Reform is very likely the largest party (~41%); the contest is whether it reaches an overall majority.

Lab 229
Reform 189
Con 83
Lib Dem 78
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 444
Reform 5
Con 117
Lib Dem 55
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 200
Reform 219
Con 77
Lib Dem 79
Green 10
SNP 33
Lab -244Reform +214Con -40Lib Dem +24Green +6SNP +33
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 230
Reform 90
Con 181
Lib Dem 78
Green 7
SNP 31
Lab +30Reform -129Con +104Lib Dem -1Green -3SNP -2
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 221
Reform 195
Con 72
Lib Dem 79
Green 9
SNP 30
Lab -9Reform +105Con -109Lib Dem +1Green +2SNP -1

Polling Tracker

1981polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
26
14
28
21
London· 75
52
6
11
North West· 73
31
29
East of England· 61
20
25
7
8
South West· 58
18
6
23
8
Scotland· 57
16
6
5
30
West Midlands· 57
13
30
6
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
14
28
4
East Midlands· 47
13
30
Wales· 32
11
13
6
North East· 27
7
18
2

Latest Polls

1981 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Lab
Ref
Con
LD
Grn
5 Aug
Find Out Now
2225
24
24
18
11
14
3 Aug
JL Partners
2048
27
25
21
12
10
3 Aug
YouGov
2300
22
23
19
12
13
2 Aug
More in Common
3334
27
24
22
10
9
31 Jul
Opinium
2050
27
23
17
12
12

Model updates

7 Aug, 19:14
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1981 polls processed.
7 Aug, 13:38
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1981 polls processed.
7 Aug, 07:40
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1981 polls processed.
7 Aug, 03:17
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1981 polls processed.
7 Aug, 00:15
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 1981 polls processed.