UK Election Forecaster

readingsignal · next general election

Model vs. markets

Where our forecast differs from what betting markets imply — and how to read the gap. A disagreement means one of us is missing something. Our calibration record, below, is how we keep score.

Updated 7 Aug 2026, 20:00 BST · Forecast v2.7-structure-reconciled · refreshed every 15 minutes
Six scenarios — pre-registered rangeOur forecast — probability-weightedBetting markets — margin removed

Which party wins most seats

Probability of finishing with the most seats at the next general election.

OutcomeOursMarkets
Reform UK
68%
29%
Labour
12%
39%
Conservatives
10%
22%
Liberal Democrats
<1%
2%
Othersnot modelled — we don't publish probabilities we can't stand behind
—
8%

If the election were held today: our nowcast puts Labour at 58%.

Largest disagreement on the page: we rate Reform UK's most-seats chances 39 points higher than markets do.

Overall majority

Whether any party wins 326 of 650 seats — or nobody does.

OutcomeOursMarkets
No Overall Majority
56%
60%
Reform UK Majority
32%
9%
Labour Majority
1%
17%
Conservatives Majority
1%
11%
Another party's majoritynot modelled
—
3%

If the election were held today: our nowcast puts No Overall Majority at 86%.

Keeping score

Across 15 resolved contests, our stated probabilities have been better calibrated than market prices — Brier score 0.091 vs 0.148 (lower is better). When we disagree with the market, this record is your reason to take us seriously — and our reason to stay honest.

How this updates. The six scenarios and their weights are pre-registered — they change only at scheduled evaluation points, never in response to the news cycle. Next evaluation: E2, due 14 August 2026.