Basildon
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 42 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (9/14 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 18Proj: 14-4
Conservative
Now: 13Proj: 10-3
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 11+11
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 11Proj: 4-7
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
25.3%
Labour
25.1%
Conservative
22.8%
Lib Dem
9.9%
Green
9.9%
Ind/Other
7.1%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge