Blackburn with Darwen
Unitary Authority· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 51 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 7 of 17 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 20+20
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 12+12
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 7+7
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
24.5%
Conservative
21.2%
Reform
20.4%
Lib Dem
14.9%
Green
11.8%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge