Bolton
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 60 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (11/20 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 26Proj: 19-7
Conservative
Now: 15Proj: 14-1
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 60
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 13+13
Green
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Other/Ind
Now: 13Proj: 0-13
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
24.3%
Reform
23.0%
Conservative
20.9%
Green
15.1%
Lib Dem
9.8%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge