Cannock Chase
Shire District· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 36 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 7 of 12 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 20Proj: 10-10
Conservative
Now: 11Proj: 10-1
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 9+9
Green
Now: 5Proj: 1-4
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
25.1%
Labour
24.6%
Conservative
23.9%
Green
10.1%
Lib Dem
9.4%
Ind/Other
6.9%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge