Colchester
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 51 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Remains no overall control. Labour projected as largest party (6/17 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 14Proj: 22+8
Conservative
Now: 19Proj: 13-6
Lib Dem
Now: 14Proj: 8-6
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Green
Now: 3Proj: 4+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
27.6%
Conservative
20.3%
Reform
18.2%
Lib Dem
14.9%
Green
12.2%
Ind/Other
6.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest