Dudley
Metropolitan Borough· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 72 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (16/25 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 25Proj: 23-2
Conservative
Now: 35Proj: 22-13
Lib Dem
Now: 5Proj: 3-2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 16+16
Green
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Other/Ind
Now: 7Proj: 0-7
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Conservative
24.5%
Labour
24.4%
Reform
23.6%
Green
10.7%
Lib Dem
9.7%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge