Local Elections / East Surrey

East Surrey

Unitary Authority· All seats up· 72 total seats
Control:NOC

Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (27/72 seats) but no party reaches a majority.

Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)

Labour
Now: 0Proj: 23+23
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 17+17
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 11+11
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 15+15
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.

Projected Vote Shares

Labour
24.5%
Conservative
21.2%
Reform
20.4%
Lib Dem
14.9%
Green
11.8%
Ind/Other
7.2%

Control Probabilities

Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%

From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.

What to watch

Reform surge