Eastleigh
Shire District· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 39 total seats
Control:Liberal Democrat→NOC
Liberal Democrat projected to hold with 5 of 13 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 15+15
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 6+6
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
25.3%
Conservative
21.2%
Reform
19.9%
Lib Dem
14.9%
Green
11.6%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest