Essex County Council
County Council· All seats up· 78 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Reform projected as largest party with 38 of 78 seats in this eastern county, up from zero. Conservative control (52 seats in 2021) collapses as Con-to-Reform switching exceeds 35%.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 21+21
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 20+20
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 11+11
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 21+21
Green
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
24.3%
Conservative
23.9%
Labour
22.7%
Lib Dem
12.4%
Green
9.8%
Ind/Other
6.9%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge