Fareham
Shire District· South East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 32 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Control changes from Conservative to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 8 of 16 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 1Proj: 8+7
Conservative
Now: 24Proj: 11-13
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 5-1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 2+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Conservative
25.0%
Labour
21.3%
Reform
20.7%
Lib Dem
17.3%
Green
8.9%
Ind/Other
6.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge