Halton
Unitary Authority· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 54 total seats
Control:Labour
Labour projected to hold with 8 of 18 seats. Labour maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 50Proj: 34-16
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 4+3
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 4+1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 7+7
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
31.6%
Reform
22.3%
Conservative
16.4%
Lib Dem
11.1%
Green
10.6%
Ind/Other
8.1%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge