Hyndburn
Shire District· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 35 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 6 of 11 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 21Proj: 11-10
Conservative
Now: 12Proj: 14+2
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Green
Now: 1Proj: 10
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Conservative
24.2%
Labour
23.0%
Reform
22.2%
Green
14.4%
Lib Dem
9.3%
Ind/Other
6.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge