Ipswich
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 48 total seats
Control:Labour
Labour projected to hold with 6 of 16 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 38Proj: 27-11
Conservative
Now: 7Proj: 11+4
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 4+1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
28.3%
Conservative
22.1%
Reform
19.1%
Green
13.8%
Lib Dem
9.7%
Ind/Other
6.9%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge