Local Elections / Isle of Wight

Isle of Wight

Unitary Authority· All seats up· 39 total seats
Control:NOC

Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (15/39 seats) but no party reaches a majority.

Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)

Labour
Now: 0Proj: 13+13
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 9+9
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 6+6
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.

Projected Vote Shares

Labour
24.5%
Conservative
21.2%
Reform
20.4%
Lib Dem
14.9%
Green
11.8%
Ind/Other
7.2%

Control Probabilities

Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%

From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.

What to watch

Reform surge