Knowsley
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 45 total seats
Control:Labour
Labour projected to hold with 7 of 15 seats. Labour maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 31Proj: 25-6
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 30
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Green
Now: 7Proj: 70
Other/Ind
Now: 4Proj: 1-3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
31.4%
Reform
22.0%
Green
15.9%
Conservative
14.0%
Lib Dem
9.7%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest