Leeds
Metropolitan Borough· Yorkshire and The Humber· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 99 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 12 of 33 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 60Proj: 46-14
Conservative
Now: 14Proj: 21+7
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 8+2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 12+12
Green
Now: 6Proj: 12+6
Other/Ind
Now: 13Proj: 0-13
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
27.9%
Conservative
19.1%
Reform
19.0%
Green
16.5%
Lib Dem
10.3%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge