Manchester
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 96 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Labour projected to hold with 14 of 32 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 87Proj: 48-39
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 11+11
Lib Dem
Now: 4Proj: 9+5
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 15+15
Green
Now: 3Proj: 14+11
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 0-2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
27.2%
Reform
19.8%
Green
18.7%
Conservative
15.7%
Lib Dem
10.8%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge