Newcastle upon Tyne
Metropolitan Borough· North East· All seats up· 78 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (36/78 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 38Proj: 39+1
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 6+5
Lib Dem
Now: 22Proj: 8-14
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 14+14
Green
Now: 2Proj: 8+6
Other/Ind
Now: 15Proj: 3-12
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
27.5%
Reform
21.4%
Green
16.4%
Conservative
16.0%
Lib Dem
11.5%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge