Newcastle-under-Lyme
Shire District· West Midlands· All seats up· 44 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Control changes from Conservative to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 21 of 44 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 17Proj: 15-2
Conservative
Now: 25Proj: 10-15
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 8+7
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 2+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
26.7%
Reform
23.8%
Conservative
22.8%
Green
10.0%
Lib Dem
9.8%
Ind/Other
6.9%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge