North Tyneside
Metropolitan Borough· North East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 60 total seats
Control:Labour
Labour projected to hold with 9 of 20 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 51Proj: 31-20
Conservative
Now: 8Proj: 9+1
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 11+11
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 4+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
29.4%
Reform
22.7%
Conservative
19.1%
Green
11.9%
Lib Dem
9.8%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge