Oldham
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 60 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (10/20 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 27Proj: 23-4
Conservative
Now: 5Proj: 11+6
Lib Dem
Now: 9Proj: 7-2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 12+12
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 19Proj: 4-15
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
26.5%
Reform
23.3%
Conservative
18.9%
Lib Dem
11.8%
Green
11.1%
Ind/Other
8.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge