Rochdale
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 60 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Labour projected to hold with 12 of 20 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 43Proj: 26-17
Conservative
Now: 8Proj: 10+2
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 30
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 14+13
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 5Proj: 50
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
28.1%
Reform
25.3%
Conservative
18.9%
Lib Dem
11.4%
Green
8.5%
Ind/Other
7.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge