Rugby
Shire District· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 42 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (8/14 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 15Proj: 17+2
Conservative
Now: 17Proj: 12-5
Lib Dem
Now: 10Proj: 4-6
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
26.0%
Conservative
23.7%
Reform
22.4%
Green
10.6%
Lib Dem
10.3%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge