Sandwell
Metropolitan Borough· West Midlands· All seats up· 72 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Black Country metro where Reform (38) challenges Labour (21) control. This working-class stronghold mirrors the pattern across northern and midlands metros.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 65Proj: 33-32
Conservative
Now: 5Proj: 14+9
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 14+14
Green
Now: 1Proj: 10
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 6+5
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
27.9%
Reform
22.6%
Conservative
20.1%
Green
12.5%
Lib Dem
9.8%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge