Sefton
Metropolitan Borough· North West· All seats up· 66 total seats
Control:Labour
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 28 of 66 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 50Proj: 36-14
Conservative
Now: 4Proj: 10+6
Lib Dem
Now: 9Proj: 3-6
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Green
Now: 1Proj: 6+5
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 1-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
30.1%
Reform
21.1%
Conservative
17.3%
Green
14.5%
Lib Dem
10.1%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge