Solihull
Metropolitan Borough· West Midlands· All seats up· 51 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Control changes from Conservative to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 21 of 51 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 1Proj: 8+7
Conservative
Now: 31Proj: 22-9
Lib Dem
Now: 8Proj: 6-2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 7+7
Green
Now: 9Proj: 4-5
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 4+2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Conservative
27.0%
Reform
21.4%
Labour
20.9%
Lib Dem
12.8%
Green
11.1%
Ind/Other
6.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge