South Cambridgeshire
Shire District· All seats up· 45 total seats
Control:Liberal Democrat→NOC
Control changes from Liberal Democrat to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 17 of 45 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 20+20
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 6+6
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
25.3%
Conservative
21.2%
Reform
19.9%
Lib Dem
14.9%
Green
11.6%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge