St Helens
Metropolitan Borough· North West· All seats up· 48 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 21 of 48 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 28Proj: 24-4
Conservative
Now: 2Proj: 6+4
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 30
Reform
Now: 2Proj: 12+10
Green
Now: 6Proj: 3-3
Other/Ind
Now: 7Proj: 0-7
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
31.6%
Reform
23.6%
Conservative
15.0%
Green
12.8%
Lib Dem
9.9%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge