Stevenage
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 39 total seats
Control:Labour
Labour projected to hold with 5 of 13 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 31Proj: 24-7
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 4+3
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 3-3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 3+2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
31.6%
Reform
21.4%
Conservative
20.1%
Lib Dem
10.1%
Green
9.8%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest