Sunderland
Metropolitan Borough· North East· All seats up· 75 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Reform projected to become largest party with 49 of 75 seats in this northern Labour heartland. Labour drops from 62 seats to 13 as working-class voters switch.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 52Proj: 32-20
Conservative
Now: 10Proj: 7-3
Lib Dem
Now: 12Proj: 6-6
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 24+24
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 5+4
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
28.0%
Reform
25.9%
Conservative
17.1%
Green
12.0%
Lib Dem
10.0%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge