Swindon
Unitary Authority· South West· All seats up· 57 total seats
Control:Labour
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 23 of 57 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 39Proj: 33-6
Conservative
Now: 16Proj: 9-7
Lib Dem
Now: 1Proj: 4+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 6+6
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
30.8%
Conservative
21.5%
Reform
20.9%
Green
10.3%
Lib Dem
9.5%
Ind/Other
6.9%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge