Tameside
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 57 total seats
Control:Labour
Labour projected to hold with 11 of 19 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 36Proj: 29-7
Conservative
Now: 7Proj: 8+1
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 17+16
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 13Proj: 0-13
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
28.3%
Reform
24.4%
Conservative
17.8%
Green
12.4%
Lib Dem
9.8%
Ind/Other
7.1%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge