Tamworth
Shire District· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 30 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 6 of 10 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 18Proj: 12-6
Conservative
Now: 6Proj: 60
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 9+9
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 6Proj: 1-5
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
26.8%
Reform
25.4%
Conservative
23.4%
Lib Dem
9.5%
Green
7.8%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge