Thurrock
Unitary Authority· East of England· All seats up· 49 total seats
Control:Labour
Reform projected to take control from Labour. Reform wins 26 of 49 contested seats as vote shares shift decisively.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 26Proj: 27+1
Conservative
Now: 12Proj: 7-5
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 3Proj: 11+8
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 8Proj: 4-4
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
29.6%
Reform
24.0%
Conservative
19.3%
Green
10.4%
Lib Dem
9.7%
Ind/Other
7.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge