Local Elections / Tower Hamlets

Tower Hamlets

London Borough· London· All seats up· 45 total seats
Control:LabourNOC

Unique political landscape. Green (15), Labour (13), and Conservative (7) compete, but Aspire (not modelled as a separate party) adds significant uncertainty.

Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)

Labour
Now: 17Proj: 19+2
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 8+7
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Green
Now: 1Proj: 12+11
Other/Ind
Now: 26Proj: 2-24
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.

Projected Vote Shares

Labour
25.5%
Green
21.9%
Conservative
19.3%
Reform
12.6%
Lib Dem
12.3%
Ind/Other
8.4%

Control Probabilities

Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%

From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.

What to watch

Control contest