Wigan
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 75 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Labour projected to hold with 18 of 25 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 63Proj: 37-26
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 6+5
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 27+27
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 11Proj: 2-9
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Labour
28.3%
Reform
26.1%
Conservative
16.5%
Green
11.6%
Lib Dem
10.2%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge